Readers of this blog know that for a long time, I have been prognosticating that health care reform would never pass. I felt this way when Obama was looking strong last summer, when he was giving speeches last fall, when both houses of Congress were passing bills last winter, when Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy’s seat, and at this very moment, too.
Are things looking different now? Obama and the White House finally seem to be throwing their weight and opinions behind the bills and what should happen to them. Intrade odds of passing a bill by June have cracked 50% for the first time in months. Nate Silver runs through some additional positive developments here.
Yet despite all this, I am still certain that there is not a chance in Hell that reform passes. The path to enacting reform is clear. 60 votes will never happen in the Senate, so that leaves two things that need to happen for it to pass. One, the Senate can use reconciliation to pass a “fix” bill to amend parts of the bill that need to be changed, like changing the excise tax, closing the Medicate “donut hole,” and dropping Ben Nelson’s kickback. I actually think the Senate can find those votes, as they only need 51.
The problem is a new one: it’s the House. Last time, health care passed by almost the bare minimum: 220-215. Since then, let’s see what has happened:
-Due to death and retirement, the Dems have lost 3 votes, bringing them down to 217.
-None of the “no” votes have yet said that they will switch and vote “yes” this time.
-Some “yes” votes, like Republican Anh Cao, have switched to “no.”
But most important of all is the “Lieberman effect,” and his name is Bart Stupak. Like I said last time, I could not fathom how people were shocked- shocked! – that Lieberman sank the public option. This is exactly what he said he would do, and he is too much of an asshole to be kidding about something like this. Same goes for Stupak. He says that he cannot support the Senate abortion language in the bill, and that he and 11 other pro-life Dems will vote against the current language.
First off, does he really have 11 others? Who cares? Even if he has only 8, or 5, or 2, it’s still enough to sink the whole thing. Second, the key here is that not a single word in the Senate bill can be changed. The House has to pass exactly the Senate bill, or else it has to go through reconciliation and pass the Senate again with 60 votes – impossible. So there you have it. Stupak says he is voting against the final bill because of the abortion language, that language cannot be changed, and I believe him. Speaker Pelosi could have scheduled the vote at any time by now. The reason she hasn’t is because she doesn’t have the votes to pass it. I suspect she never will.
And as an update, Greg Sargent has more about the whip count: yet more Dems who were “Yes” are now undecided, and no “No” votes have yet switched sides.
http://theplumline.whorunsgov.com/terrorism/happy-hour-roundup-175/
At the same time, while the Rahm obsession annoys me, Peter Baker really has a must-read on Rahm, Obama, and the trials of the first year. Check it here: