On Friday, the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. In the advance release, the BEA reported real GDP increased at a 2.4% annualized rate in Q2. However subsequent economic releases for construction spending, inventory and trade all suggest downward revisions in the second release. The consensus is for a downward revision to 1.3% real annualized growth.
And next week, the ISM manufacturing index will be released – and this will probably continue to decline based on the regional manufacturing reports (I’m tracking all the regional reports right now because I expect a slowdown in manufacturing).
And next Friday, the August employment report will be released. I expect another weak report – and I expect the unemployment rate to start ticking up.
BTW, if you don’t glance at Calculated Risk from time to time, you’re missing out on one of the best economic blogs on the web, particularly with regards to analysis of interesting and often ignored economic indicators.
One thing that CR points out that is worth mentioning:
Note: I still think the economy will avoid a technical double-dip recession, but the odds are uncomfortably high – and it will probably feel like a recession to millions of Americans. It will be especially discouraging – if I’m correct – when the unemployment rate starts increasing again, and when reported house prices start falling again.
To the average American, GDP growth of 0.5% will feel a whole lot like GDP contraction of 0.5%. The fact that the category for one is still weak growth and the other is recession won’t matter to Americans still out of work or trying to make ends meet. Whether the economy is “growing” or “shrinking” may mean a great deal to policymakers, but it won’t mean squat to the people who are suffering the most, particularly long-term unemployed.