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There was a real tragedy at Fort Hood today. The details will be forthcoming, I am sure. I am near going to bed, and I just checked on Sullivan, who said that, “I’ve now read so many conflicting reports and rumors and speculation about motives that I’m dizzy.” Incidentally, both Stendhal and I are super busy right now, so we sometimes don’t see news unfold live. But based on Sully’s comment, I was sure there had to be some spectacular false statements earlier today that I had missed, so I went over to my usual source for crazy talk, NRO’s The Corner. Now, in fairness to the Corner, many of their posts today weren’t commentary, but were repeating things that were being reported elsewhere. But still, scrolling back to get to earlier today, I see:

-Several people are being held, which means that this was a coordinated conspiracy arranged by multiple people (False, there was one shooter.)

-The shooter is dead (False, he is alive and in custody.)

-The shooter was a recent convert to Islam (False, he has been a Muslim his whole life.)

I picked those, especially the first one, because they fit too cleanly into an already written narrative, that this was a planned outburst of jihad by fundamentalist Muslim terrorists. Now, sure, it is possible that that is what Nidal Hasan is. We will find out, I am sure. But it’s sadly certain that this will be *the* focus of the story over the next few days. Or, as TPM put it earlier today: this is going to get very dark. Like, for example, this. I’m glad I didn’t read anything about this until much later tonight.

Loving you

These statutes also deprive the Lovings of liberty without due process of law in violation of the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. The freedom to marry has long been recognized as one of the vital personal rights essential to the orderly pursuit of happiness by free men.

Marriage is one of the “basic civil rights of man,” fundamental to our very existence and survival.  — Loving v. Virginia (1967)

Linus mentioned Loving v. Virginia in his post about marriage equality, but I think it’s important to remember exactly what this remarkable case shows us about the power and importance of American jurisprudence. Read the words of Warren’s close of Loving’s majority opinion again. The Warren Court’s opinion of the essentiality of marriage as a fundamental human right stands as the most stark statement of the place marriage holds in our culture, sometimes to our detriment. It is also a statement of what is right in the face of what is popular, an often-difficult distinction to make. As I noted in my comment on Linus’ post, at the time of the ruling, 73% of Americans disapproved of interracial marriage, and that number would remain over 50% until fully 15 years after the ruling. (Keep in mind that this is much higher disapproval than current disapproval ratings of same-sex marriage.)

Nevertheless, reading Loving and the reasoning of the court, it is difficult to see exactly why courts today are unwilling to uphold the ruling as precedent for same-sex marriage. For instance, in the most high-profile case to use Loving, the New York Court of Appeals ruled against the plaintiffs on Hernandez v. Robles, stating:

Plaintiffs have not persuaded us that this long-accepted restriction is a wholly irrational one, based solely on ignorance and prejudice against homosexuals. This is the question on which these cases turn. If we were convinced that the restriction plaintiffs attack were founded on nothing but prejudice—if we agreed with plaintiffs that it is comparable to the restriction in Loving v Virginia (388 US 1 [1967]), a prohibition on interracial{**7 NY3d at 361} marriage that was plainly “designed to maintain White Supremacy” (id. at 11)—we would hold it invalid, no matter how long its history. As the dissent points out, a long and shameful history of racism lay behind the kind of statute invalidated in Loving.

It seems likely that one could find a similar legalized hatred and bigotry towards homosexuals had existed in sodomy laws, but that’s beside the point.

The point is that the logic of the Loving case resides in its determination that the Equal Protection clause of the Fourteenth Amendment is not fulfilled simply because both whites and non-whites are equally punished under the interracial marriage law. Warren rightly eviscerates this argument:

The State finds support for its “equal application” theory in the decision of the Court in Pace v. Alabama, 106 U.S. 583 (1883). In that case, the Court upheld a conviction under an Alabama statute forbidding adultery or fornication between a white person and a Negro which imposed a greater penalty than that of a statute proscribing similar conduct by members of the same race. The Court reasoned that the statute could not be said to discriminate against Negroes because the punishment for each participant in the offense was the same. However, as recently as the 1964 Term, in rejecting the reasoning of that case, we stated “Pace represents a limited view of the Equal Protection Clause which has not withstood analysis in the subsequent decisions of this Court.” As we there demonstrated, the Equal Protection Clause requires the consideration of whether the classifications drawn by any statute constitute an arbitrary and invidious discrimination.[emphasis mine]

If one needed proof of the arbitrary and invidious discrimination present in the constitutional amendments to ban marriage equality, one need look no further than the backwards referenda being pushed throughout the states targeting same-sex couples.

If it is not eminently clear that the specific prohibition of same-sex marriage constitutes anything other than “arbitrary and invidious discrimination,” I don’t know what does. If marriage, one of the “basic rights of man,” is denied to a specific group of individuals, the most basic tenet of Loving has been thrown out the window:

To deny this fundamental freedom on so unsupportable a basis as the racial classifications embodied in these statutes, classifications so directly subversive of the principle of equality at the heart of the Fourteenth Amendment, is surely to deprive all the State’s citizens of liberty without due process of law. The Fourteenth Amendment requires that the freedom of choice to marry not be restricted by invidious racial discriminations. Under our Constitution, the freedom to marry, or not marry, a person of another race resides with the individual, and cannot be infringed by the State.

Perhaps the most remarkable element of this particular decision, however, is the vote. It was unanimous. All nine Justices voted in favor of the plaintiffs in Loving. Even Hugo Black, a Southern Democrat who couldn’t stomach Tinker v. Des Moines, ruled in favor of the plaintiffs.

One wonders whether the justices today would have the fortitude to do the same. I doubt it.

Loving stands as a testament to the best that American legal thought has to offer — a reminder that although our country has not always governed and legislated by the ideals laid out in its foundational documents, we do try our best to correct the errors of our ways. I hope it is used as precedent in a new case of marriage equality soon.

HIV vaccine! (Not really)

Over a month ago, there was some news about the first possible HIV vaccine. I remember reading that this was the first trial of an HIV vaccine that showed any success pretty much ever. But there weren’t any details at the time. Now, the full report has been published in the New England Journal of Medicine, and I find it unconvincing. The vaccine is a combination of two vaccines previously known not to work. 8198 people in Thailand were given saline injections, and over the time of the study, 74 got HIV. That is the control group. To compare, 8197 people were given the vaccine, and at the end of the same period, the number with HIV was… 51.

That’s it. Those are the raw data. Everything else after that is statistical analysis and interpretation. Are you impressed? I’m not. 51 is less than 74, but does it mean anything? The researchers did a statistical test called a p-test to see if the results were significant. They did the test three times, using different data in each case, and in only one of them did they get a p value that was less than 0.05 (it was 0.04.) Usually, a p-test has to be less than 0.05 to be considered significant. And what that means is that there was a 4% chance, even in their best case scenario, that the observed effect could be observed due to random chance (the other p-tests said this chance was even higher). But that is regardless of whatever that “observed effect” might be. In this case, the effect is merely a 40% maximum reduction in infection rates. And when observed over time, the benefit is only immediate, and then after the first year the rates track the same as the control group.

So, to review:
1. It provides an initial benefit, but after that the rates of infection are the same.
2. That benefit only applies to a minority of people receiving the vaccine.
3. It *barely* passes statistical scrutiny that this modest benefit is even real.
4. Even if it is real, we have no idea how it works.

The AIDS/HIV vaccine community has been so starved for good news for so long, that it’s easy to understand them for grasping at good news where very little exists. By all means, it could be a good thing, and it’s good to follow up on it, as they are planning to. But the point here is that, as is frequently the case in science, results can be murky.

Or, as a labmate put it to me the other day: (impact)*(certainty) = a constant

Maine and gay marriage

Ok, I just lied. I said I didn’t care about the elections tonight, but what I meant is that I didn’t care about the races for governor of NJ or VA, or NYC mayor, or NYC-23 Rep. But I do care about the gay marriage ballot issue in Maine. Before tonight, never before had any popular referendum on gay marriage benefitted gays and lesbians. After tonight, that will still be true. While it’s not completely over, results here look as though gay marriage will lose by a 52-48 vote, echoing the same percentage that we had in California a year ago. And once again, I am frustrated that basic civil rights are decided by popular vote, that once again, the majority has decided to oppress a minority. A lot of people think it would be better for gay marriage to win by popular vote. Or, if not by popular vote, then by passing state laws. What people mean when they say this is they don’t want “activist judges” passing down edicts that will apply to the whole nation. But so what? As I’ve said before, “activist judge” is just an empty phrase used by people whenver they don’t like the outcome of a court case. When the Supreme Court outlawed bans on interracial marriage in the 1967 case Loving v Virginia, there were still laws in 20 states making it illegal. I am sure that in at least some of those states, popular votes would have weighed in to say that interracial marriage should remain illegal. I’m also certain that they whined about “activist judges” back then, too. The march of civil rights is unidirectional, even despite its setbacks. I know gay marriage is going to win over time, but I’ve basically decided that I would prefer to see it win by a US Supreme Court decision, and now. That case just might be Perry v Schwarzenegger, which is being argued by Ted Olsen and David Boies, who in Bush v Gore represented Bush and Gore, respectively.

Election night thoughts

You might have noticed that I’ve stayed quiet during the run up to the elections that were held today. Part of this is because I am still very busy with the paper I am writing (first draft is sitting on my adviser’s table). But the other reason is because I just don’t find them interesting. Pundits like to say that this is some referendum on Obama, but of course pundits say that, because it’s their job to make the trivial bullshit more important than it is. Like Yglesias points out, if you want to know what people think about Obama, instead of looking at the election between 3 people not named Obama in the 23rd district of New York, you could instead, you know, ask people what they think of Obama. Oh but wait, that answer has been clear for a long time: overall positive, not by as much as the early months of his presidency.

I’m too disgusted even to write about it, so I’ll let Greenwald do it for me. Arar was an innocent Canadian with no connections to terrorism now or ever, who while traveling through the US was abducted by the US government, held without communication to anyone, and then shipped to Syria to be tortured for 10 months. The Canadian government publicly apologized to him and paid him $9 million dollars. The US government has never ackowledged it did wrong and now, by way of one of its federal appeals courts, has voted 7-4 to throw his case out. That about sums it up. And go ahead and file Arar under “A” in the book of reasons for people to justifiably hate America forever.

Unpersons hero Scott Horton notes another nail in the coffin for the Fourth Amendment in our permanent surveillance culture. Because of the increasing number of intermediaries between our information, we no longer have control over it or privacy with it.

From Horton:

The government sought to subpoena the emails of a suspect in a criminal investigation. It issued a subpoena to Google, but it failed to give notice to the subscriber as the federal rules and statute would appear to require. The purpose of notice is fairly straightforward: it gives the subject the opportunity to contest the subpoena and puts him on notice of the government’s investigation. Implementing the protections of the Fourth Amendment, isn’t the subscriber entitled to notice? Not in the view of Judge Michael Mosman…

It’s odd that we must become comfortable with an age wherein we no longer have privacy. No secret will remain our own simply because every piece of information we own is not our own. Our e-mails are the property of ISPs; our phone calls run through a phantom series of networks; our conversations and actions are picked up by cameras, microphones, etc. So much of our “homes” are no longer our own; our most valuable property today — e-mail, documents, and ideas — are free to be released into the open without even a brief notice to the original creator of these ideas.

At some point, either we will have to accept that the Fourth Amendment is simply no longer operative over the bulk of our online lives, or we have to broaden the definition of “persons, houses, papers and effects” to a much wider scope than it has previously been understood.

California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger recently vetoed a unanimously approved measure from the State Assembly. It’s about financing the port of San Francisco, so it’s not really exciting news by itself. But the letters at the beginning of each line perfectly spell out “Fuck you” down the left column of the page:

Ok, that’s kinda interesting, I suppose. His press secretary said that this was just a “weird coincidence.” Well, it’s weird, but it’s almost certainly not a coincidence. How certain? About 1 in 1,000,000,000,000, according to math nerds. Of course, this analysis is silly, too, but is worth it only because the Governator bothered to deny it at all. I guess he preferred inplausible deniability over just telling them to fuck themselves outright.

Antville has a list of the 101 best music videos of the 2000s, and the list is fairly canonical. I recommend a look.

I would, however, like to point out five of the best videos not included on Antville’s somewhat limited list…

M83 – Don’t Save Us From the Flames: A sweet unrequited high school love story with a great tune, plus girl on bike meets dream boy on bike in ghost outfits! Come on, don’t pretend like you didn’t enjoy it.

Juvenile – Get Ya Hustle On: Post-Katrina, Juvenile’s drug rap seems somehow anachronistic, but the video itself highlights the relevance of the genre. The rather blunt political imagery — marching street thugs in Cheney and Bush masks, a rims-clad Escalade towed by horses — has nothing on the stark image of a man amidst the rubble holding a sign: “STILL HERE.” Katrina changed everything, and nothing.

Kanye West – Throw Some D’s (remix): Kanye’s old ass cousin? Stripping sign-language translator? Spirit fingers for Alicia Keys? “That just happened.”

Electric Six – Gay Bar: OK, it’s a gimmick. But how could you go wrong with Abraham Lincoln(s) in various states of undress? Also, bonus points for bleeping out “war” and “nuclear war.”

E-40 – Tell Me When To Go: This Face alone would have sold me on this video, but everything about it screams the do-it-yourself amateur joy of hyphy. I love how E-40 has just the right amount of nonchalance to carry this video; he vaguely acknowledges the camera, but on the whole, it’s clear that he is enjoying himself behind that smirk. Hip-hop had suffered from a downer phase, before the ignorant bliss of hyphy brought it back. Then Soulja Boy and Auto-Tune had to come ruin things…

Yes, I’m still here

I had to skip town for a few days, and upon getting back, I’ve discovered that I am on the verge of getting scooped, possibly significantly. For those unfamiliar with the term, it means another lab group is potentially publishing an article that would contain many of the same results that I have come up with. As such, I am working desperately to scoop my would-be scoopers, and get my paper out ASAP. This makes blogging regularly difficult. Thanks to Stendhal for keeping things going.

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