Kos, the namesake of Daily Kos, makes a case for why Michelle Bachmann will be the GOP candidate for President. It is an intriguing argument. I agree with him that the only real contenders right now are her, Pawlenty, and Romney. Santorum is a wanna-be without the name recognition, polling, or cash to compete. Ron Paul has (as always) no chance. Jon Huntsman is like the Wesley Clark candidacy of 2004 (great on paper to moderates but unlikely to catch fire). Newt Gingrich is a terrible person who will never get women to vote for him. I’m also assuming that the grifter from Wasilla will prefer to make boatloads of cash in favor of doing the hard work that campaigning requires, and that an outsider like Rick Perry won’t get in and shake things up, though that certainly could happen.
Thus, I agree with Kos that one of those three – Bachmann, T-Paw, and Mittens – will win the primary. However, I’m hesitant to agree that she will get it, for the same reason that John McCain beat Mike Huckabee in 2008. Around the Iowa caucus, and especially right after, a lot of people were high on the Huckster’s chances. I remember I was. He played so strongly among the religious and socially conservative, and I thought those voters would control the primaries. But in modern presidential politics, the GOP tends to reward the insider who waited his turn time and time again (most notably McCain in 2008 and Dole in 1996). And so if I had to choose right now, I’d guess that Romney will win.
That being said, the biggest factor Kos’ argument has going for it is if ideological purity is king and electability is less a factor these days. After all, if the GOP voters of Delaware chose Christine O’Donnell over Mike Castle, then maybe all bets truly are off.