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Archive for the ‘With Democrats Like These Who Needs Republicans?’ Category

Game theory problem for Democrat in unsafe districts, who are already refusing to pass Obama’s extremely modest jobs bill. Let’s assume the following game grid.

   VOTE NO VOTE YES
 BILL PASSES  +5%  -1%
 BILL FAILS  -5%  -5%

So I’ve based these guesstimate numbers on evidence gleaned from Nate Silver about how the health care reform and bailout bills hurt Democrats. I also assume that Democrats benefited from an overall improvement in the economy thanks to the stimulus. Without the bailout package, the economy would have probably tanked further, thus totally dooming Democrats’ 2010 election hopes. (That’s why “Bill Fails” leads to a continued decline in vote share.) Silver writes:

There are inherent limitations to this sort of analysis. It does seem fairly clear, however, that individual Democrats who voted against the health care bill — and the bailout extension – overperformed those who did in otherwise similar districts who voted for them, and it seems probable that these votes also damaged the electoral standing of Democrats over all.

If this is the case (and there are plenty of reasons why it might not be), then this game would suggest that the ideal situation for Democrats would be voting against the bill, but somehow getting the bill passed anyways. Yet, this is almost certainly impossible. If even Democrats don’t support the bill, it immediately falls into the Bill Fails category, thus hurting all Democrats.

Basically, the collective-action problem here causes Democrats to vote “no,” hoping that the bill will still pass. This leads the bill to probably not pass (or get watered down substantially), which leads to a worse economy and all Democrats getting boned. Thus, the least bad scenario would be to vote yes and accept the 1% decline in exchange for the expected effects of the added stimulus to the economy. But no one can do it because everyone fears wipeout in November.

And yet, they fail to realize that if Obama does not perform well in November, NONE OF THEM WILL EITHER.

And thus, the story of how Democrats shot themselves in the foot/arm/face. Again. As always.

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The New York Times Magazine printed a chat dialogue this past weekend between Michael Ignatieff, David Rieff, James Traub, Paul Berman, and Ian Buruma, about the aftermath of 9/11 and its effect on foreign policy.

The chat, between liberal writers (mostly reporters), gives a fair view of the chats inside the salons of liberal intelligentsia. As such, it also epitomizes everything that is wrong with the liberal response to 9/11.

From the outset, the discussion is entirely between well-to-do, white, male, Western writers, none of whom speak Arabic or have spent an extended time in the Middle East or Central Asia (despite all being “experts”). This is not merely a cosmetic criticism — any discussion about post-9/11 foreign policy is almost meaningless without someone from the Arab/Muslim (not interchangeable, I know) world, which is actually targeted by our wars. Here are a bunch of armchair intellectuals trying to fumble with what the “Arab Spring” “means” — without talking to any Arabs! Many more Iraqis and Afghans have died than coalition forces, and yet, here we are debating if we maybe should have done things differently.

Beyond that initial complaint, the discussion largely centers on the competence and scope of our interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact, the only participant in the discussion who seems to think that American intervention for “liberal” causes was largely a bad idea is Buruma. This excerpt is typical:

MALCOMSON: In terms of what should be done now, two questions: Do you (each) believe that the Western or American public, having financed and fought most of this since 9/11, is eager to engage in further advancement of liberal arguments? If not, does that matter? And relatedly, President Obama has to figure out what to do himself, pretty practically. (He makes little public reference to 9/11, interestingly.) Where do you see whatever lessons we might have learned in the past decade taking policies in the near future?

TRAUB: On the first question, this is what troubles me about David’s response. There is a big difference between humility and despair. I think we have learned a lot about limits. But I don’t think the lesson is: We can do nothing to shape better outcomes in the world; we only make things worse. I would say that the American people, far from being interventionist, as they were in the aftermath of 9/11, are now heavily isolationist. How does one find the language that justifies a significant and positive American role in the world? Obama is searching — not so successfully, right now.

BURUMA: One way is to be concrete. I really don’t know what “advancing the liberal argument” means, except that it is supposed to make us feel warm all over. Are we talking about U.S. government policies? Fine. Military intervention, to topple regimes, the Napoleonic enterprise of revolutionary war, is almost always a mistake. Humanitarian intervention is the way this is phrased these days, but in fact this is often not so different from the Napoleonic way. There are things a powerful government can do to help democrats and liberals in other countries short of military force. Sometimes it is better to do nothing much at all. I believe that Obama’s relative passivity vis a vis the Green Revolution in Iran, for example, actually helped. It gave room for people in the Middle East to find their own way, without fear of being seen as America’s boys.

BERMAN: I think that “advancing the liberal argument” has a simple meaning. We should try to demonstrate the falsity of horrendous ideas — e.g., the false nature of Islamism. Islamism is not “the solution,” as it claims to be. It is a compilation of modern and ancient ideas, admixed with a great many horrendous European ideas. We should try to expose the nature of these doctrines. Very important, for instance, is to put up an argument against anti-Semitism, a key element in totalitarian doctrines, sooner or later. Women’s rights: another big theme.

Do these arguments mean nothing? We know very well that, in Iran, the universities are a center of resistance. Do people in other parts of the world listen to our own arguments? They do. They argue back. Exchanges go on. This — THIS — is the actual solution: the advancing of lucidity. I wish Obama did a bit more of it, given that, unlike Bush, he has the talent to do so. But it is not ultimately for politicians to do. This is something that intellectuals, writers, artists, journalists can do — something that quite a few NGO’s have been doing, with success too, as we have lately learned.

BURUMA: If only everybody in the world would read The New Republic, the world would solve all its problems.

Buruma’s snark at the end, although not entirely professional, was a necessary counterbalance to all the chest-thumping. In Berman’s world (and even Traub’s), the question about 9/11 has been all about us. It’s “what about America?” and “what should America do?” rather than considering what we have done and who it has affected. (Luckily Malcolmson addresses this point, if only briefly.) If only we intervened in the “right” way with the “right” types of force, we could succeed in winning hearts and minds. But this ignores entirely the question of our right to be in a war in the first place.

The discussants here fail to see 9/11 and our subsequent foreign policy in terms appropriate in scale for the event. Malcolmson goes so far as to compare the post-9/11 era to the Civil War — about as far from a comparable situation as one can get. 9/11 does not represent the potential end of the republic the way the Civil War did. The “existential threat” that 9/11 represented was never existential at all. 9/11 was al Qaeda’s best shot, and it was an attack on a symbol, not a military target — never a good strategic turn. (Attacking symbols rather than military targets was why the London Blitz failed… also, radar.) All the bloviating about “the threat to our way of life” as an excuse to go somewhere else and blow people up, and for what? Military responses to terrorism have almost always failed historically (see, for example, the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand), and yet that’s exactly what we rushed to do.

I’ll end on a pacifist note. Every discussant here believes that military intervention is appropriate in a variety of circumstances, with differing beliefs on what those circumstances are. The pacifist voice has been consistently marginalized in “serious” foreign policy debates, and anyone who says anything resembling pacifism is treated as participating in an intellectual exercise rather than the real world. When discussing post-9/11 foreign policy, the debate is always about “how much” military force to use, rather than “whether” to use force at all. “Give peace a chance” may be derided as unrealistic and naive, but I’d note that nobody has actually tried it.

(Side note: Try as I might, I could not find any similar roundtable discussion by Arab-American or Muslim about the American response to 9/11. How strange.)

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You could reasonably make the argument that the new smog regulations that the Obama administration backtracked on might be costly for heavy polluters such as public utilities and manufacturers. Furthermore, you could argue that public utilities are already the target of extensive regulation, and that they are taxed highly, usually with separate state public utility taxes on top of federal.

But the Obama administration’s argument that the smog regulations would “hurt job creation” is just ludicrous. I mean, it doesn’t even begin to make sense.

First, it presumes that the reason companies aren’t hiring is because they don’t have enough money. This is patently false; companies have giant piles of cash and don’t know what to do with them.

Second, it presumes that the regulations themselves somehow constrict the companies’ ability to hire new workers. Yet, generally, payroll considerations have little or nothing to do with regulatory regimes, and any correlation is probably slim at best.

Third, and most importantly, it ignores any demand-side problems. The reason companies aren’t hiring is because they don’t have customers to buy what they want to sell. There’s an enormous gap in demand that is not being filled, particularly as government spending plateaus off or falls. Austerity basically sucks for everyone.

If the Obama administration doesn’t want to issue these anti-smog regulations for tactical reasons or for scientific reasons, that’s their choice. The Obama administration’s idiotic argument that this will “save/create jobs” only makes him look worse to liberals and will buy him exactly no good will from independents/conservatives.

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I read Calculated Risk (and you should too!) for its aggregation of various economic indicators and trends.

But every once in a while, Bill McBride will write some editorial comments and, well, this one’s short and depressing.

Basically, McBride lays out the terrible options the Obama administration is considering, namely literally nothing (passing things through Congress) or targeted tax incentives for hiring workers:

Tax incentives are the “bigger idea”? It sounds like the debate is between doing nothing and doing very little.

If I arrived on the scene today – with a 9.1% unemployment rate and about 4.6 million homes with seriously delinquent mortgages or REO – I’d be arguing for an aggressive policy response.

Indeed, it’s weird to think about this without the history of the stimulus, but if Obama stepped into office today, instead of in 2008, he would be calling for stimulus. So much for that ship.

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Look, I don’t care what words Mark Halperin says on TV. Whatever.

I even kind of agree with Halperin’s sentiment. President Obama, in calling out Republicans yesterday, behaved a bit like a dick — intractable, abrasive and unfriendly. But he should! Sometimes, the President has to act like a dick in order to assert his/her authority. If being a dick means accusing your opponents of insincerity and cravenness, then Presidents have a responsibility to do so when it comes to preserving the nation. Being friendly has gotten him a whole lot of nothing.

Truman was a dick to the steel industry, Joe Stalin, and Southern Democrats. Johnson was a dick to just about everybody, from hippies to Yankee Republicans to Southern Democrats to big city bosses. Being President sometimes means being a dick and getting what you want.

An appropriate (and thoroughly NSFW) video below:

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President Obama has released his long-form birth certificate.

Number of birthers this will appease: 0

News cycles that this will consume: A TON

Problems fixed by this: 0

Unfortunate precedents this sets: 1

President Obama, I hate to say it, but you’re doing it wrong. Appeasing the irrational person doesn’t make him or her more rational.

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UPDATE: Obama administration denies it all. But I would point out that this is exactly what happened with the public option. The Obama administration publicly stated that it would support a public option, then backed down, then got called on it, then vehemently denied backing down, then backed down in the end.

I would be surprised if a similar future did not await the tax cut sunset.

ORIGINAL POST:

Just, wow. Just, no. Just, I don’t even, I don’t, I can’t, I… damn:

President Barack Obama’s top adviser suggested to The Huffington Post late Wednesday that the administration is ready to accept an across-the-board continuation of steep Bush-era tax cuts, including those for the wealthiest taxpayers.

That appears to be the only way, said David Axelrod, that middle-class taxpayers can keep their tax cuts, given the legislative and political realities facing Obama in the aftermath of last week’s electoral defeat.

And I just threw up in my own mouth.

There’s just nothing Democrats like more than coughing up the ball. You had a great issue! You could have had a great showdown in the Senate. “We’re trying to keep a middle class tax cut, while keeping taxes high on the super-rich! Republicans aren’t! See, they haven’t changed!” The debate itself would make the deficit hawks appear ridiculous, and open up the discussion of why the rich aren’t paying their share. Not to mention, the tax cuts will expire on their own anyways! They only get extended if the bill gets through both houses of Congress.

There’s an argument to be made that going against tax cuts is always stupid (an argument that is wrong, of course). But the tactical point is, the Obama administration just made clear that it gave up the tax cut fight for nothing. Do you think the Republicans will give one inch, back down one iota, hold back from gutting health care reform and financial reform one second? If you do, then the Stockholm Syndrome of the beltway is truly unstoppable. “Compromise” only works when the other side gives something back in return.

Nothing like this kind of news to wake you up in the morning. Bluuuuuuuuurgh.

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Greg Sargent has a good rundown of various angles of complaint against the Obama administration. I am unsure as to whether his suggestion to the Obama administration of “engagement” with his left flank is necessarily the best advice, but I’ll leave the politicking to the expert.

I did wonder, however, which of the three camps my own dissent with the Obama administration comes from. Essentially, Sargent lays out three rough areas of disagreement:

  1. The unenthused base — union workers, poor people, minorities
  2. The issue-oriented dissent — civil libertarians, doves, consumer rights advocates
  3. The politics-oriented dissent — MoveOn, progressive organizers, populists

I guess I’d probably fit more into the 2nd category. I think that Obama’s actions have been fairly good politics for Obama. That is to say, Obama still remains relatively popular, and his place in history will be largely affirmed. He saved the nation from an economic crisis, passed his signature health care and financial reform legislation, and handled various crises essentially unscathed. (The jury’s still out on Iraqistan.) That said, I think that Group 3 has a good argument in terms of the party as a whole.

As far as the “stop whining” idea, there’s only so much that whining can do. As in the health care and financial reform debates, it has become clear that I would rather have something in the form of a watered-down bill, as opposed to nothing which is what the alternative appears to be. In this case, I would prefer Obama to the alternative.

Nevertheless, I think the importance of the Overton window cannot be overstated here. The Republicans are veering more towards the crazy all the time, and are pulling the debate to the right constantly. Why aren’t lefties allowed to do the same? Must we always defer to The Leader? I don’t think liberalism is any more conducive to autocracy than conservatism, and certainly Republican base types have rebelled against Bush and the establishment many a time (see: immigration reform).

If anything, the Obama Administration should welcome the whining! It makes the center all the more attracted to him. Nothing makes a moderate Democrat happier than punching a hippie, or vicariously watching the President punch a hippie.

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Seriously, Democrats suck.

Senate Dems squirmed their way out of voting on extending just the Bush tax cuts.

Mary Landrieu (D-La.), who won her seat in 2008 because of phenomenal black turnout for one Barack Obama, has used her hold power to damage the functioning of the federal government.

And oh yeah, the Republicans are willing to use reconciliation to do whatever they want if we get a Republican senate.

Being a Democrat is a bit like being a Cubs fan.

Actually, it’s a lot like being a Cubs fan.

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Evan Bayh was, in many ways, indicative of the problems in American “centrism” — notably the inability to articulate any message other than fence-sitting.

Nevertheless, one part of his farewell speech made clear how much the symptom of false bipartisanship has destroyed any real political dialogue:

Two weeks ago, the Senate voted down a bipartisan commission to deal with one of the greatest threats facing our nation: our exploding deficits and debt. The measure would have passed, but seven members who had endorsed the idea instead voted “no” for short-term political reasons.

Just last week, a major piece of legislation to create jobs — the public’s top priority — fell apart amid complaints from both the left and right.

OK, let’s look at these seven co-sponsors who jumped ship. Which party did they belong to? Hmm…

Republican Sens. Sam Brownback (Kan.), Mike Crapo (Idaho), John Ensign (Nev.), Kay Bailey Hutchison (Texas), James Inhofe (Okla.) and John McCain (Ariz.) all voted against the bill, despite being co-sponsors. A seventh GOP senator, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, had co-sponsored the bill and planned to support it but was forced to miss the vote for family reasons.

Huh, would you look at that? All 7 co-sponsors who jumped ship were Republicans.

Hey, let’s see why that whole jobs bill failed. Was it voices on “both the left and the right”? I wonder…

The pared-down version that Reid is pushing would cost only an estimated $15 billion over a decade. To reach that low price, Reid threw out the extension of some tax breaks included to win Republicans, but also some items popular with Democrats, including extension of unemployment benefits and subsidies to help the jobless keep their health insurance.

//

Reid said the Senate Democratic caucus backed his move. Trimming the bill could keep at bay criticism that the Senate was producing yet more legislation loaded with special deals.

But Republicans who had worked to craft the original bipartisan jobs bill weren’t happy.

Reid “pulled the rug out from work to build broad-based support for tax relief and other efforts to help the private sector recover from the economic crisis,” said Jill Kozeny, a spokesperson for rassley, in a statement.

OK, just so we’re clear. Reid took away something Republicans wanted and something Democrats wanted. Never mind that the Democrats are actually in control of the Senate or anything; we need bipartisanship! Democrats said OK. Republicans jumped ship.

Yet, in his farewell speech, Bayh presents the bipartisanship problem as both sides seemingly unable to come together. This is not a question of two intractable parties, neither willing to compromise. One party is willing to compromise a lot — on health care, on stimulus, on climate change. Every outstretched hand is met with the slap of the Republican Party.

Bipartisanship has failed because one party — the Republican Party — has decided that its best bet for electoral success in the near future is simply to make “Washington” appear as inept as possible, which is exactly what Bayh helped to frame in his speech:

I am constantly reminded that if Washington, D.C., could be more like Indiana, Washington would be a better place.

The whole “Blame Washington” approach only benefits the exact same forces that make “bipartisanship,” as Bayh imagines it, impossible today — the regressive, obstructionist and ultimately destructive right wing party. Bayh can blame “the left and the right” or “Washington” if it makes him feel better, but his dream of bipartisanship as a magical totem worthy of fetishization created exactly the impossible environment he claims to detest.

They’ll agree with us when we win.

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